FRBSF Economic Letter 2021-02 February 1, 2021
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Thus, our results indicate that government purchases could be an effective way to stimulate an economy
during a deep recession when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound. Unfortunately, there
is not enough evidence to empirically estimate the magnitude of that effect in the United States, because
times with a binding zero lower bound have been rare historically. However, our conclusion is consistent
with recent evidence that the spending multiplier can be above 1.5 when monetary policy is held fixed (see
Nakamura and Steinsson 2014, Miyamoto, Nguyen, and Sergeyev 2018).
Conclusion
Recent research has shown that the effectiveness of fiscal tools can depend on the underlying economic
conditions, for example whether the economy is in a boom versus a slump. In this Letter, we show that the
effectiveness of fiscal policy can also depend on the direction of the intervention—expansionary versus
contractionary. In particular, we find that the expansionary multiplier is generally smaller than the
contractionary multiplier. An exception occurs in deep downturns, particularly when monetary policy is
expected to stay at the zero lower bound for a substantial time, as is currently the case. In that situation, the
expansionary multiplier can be much larger.
Regis Barnichon is a senior research advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Davide Debortoli is an associate professor at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE
Christian Matthes is an associate professor at Indiana University
References
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https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2021-01
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Miyamoto, Wataru, Thuy Lan Nguyen, and Dmitriy Sergeyev. 2018. “Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower
Bound: Evidence from Japan.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(3), pp. 247–277.
Nakamura, Emi, and Jon Steinsson. 2014. “Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from U.S. Regions.” American
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Ramey, Valerie A., and Sarah Zubairy. 2018. “Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S.
Historical Data.” Journal of Political Economy 126(2), pp. 850–901.
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