Nuclear Power
and the Paris Agreement
< 2ºC
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NUCLEAR POWER AND THE NEW
CLIMATE POLICY FRAMEWORK
How can we meet the climate target set by the
Paris Agreement?
In November 2015, world leaders came together to
agree on fi rm climate targets
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: holding the increase
in global average temperature from pre-industrial
levels to well below 2°C, the threshold at which
most experts believe the worst impacts from climate
change can still be avoided, and pursue efforts to
limit the rise to 1.5°C (Fig. 1).
A fi rst step towards achieving the Paris
Agreement goal is for all countries to meet
their initial INDC pledges.
The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
(INDCs) submitted in support of the Paris Agreement
are aimed at reducing or mitigating greenhouse gas
emissions over a span of 10 to 15 years. As of the
end of October 2016, 163 INDCs were submitted,
representing 190 countries and covering almost
99% of global emissions.
Figure 1. Estimates for global temperature rise with
INDCs out to 2100.
2
However, initial INDCs fall well short of meeting
the Paris Agreement targets. Meeting pledges and
turning plans into action are only the fi rst steps
towards achieving the decarbonization of economies.
Continued motivation to increase the efforts to
meet the 2°C target is the “ambition” coined in the
Agreement. Hence, the Paris Agreement stipulates
what is now referred to as the Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDC) to be progressively revised
every fi ve years starting from 2020.
What does it take to decarbonize the energy
sector?
Energy-related emissions make up three-quarters
of global greenhouse gases (GHG). Implementing
the Agreement thus implies a radical transformation
of energy production and usage. Three essential
components of any climate strategy are:
1. An across-the-board adoption of energy
conservation measures to decrease
consumption, particularly of fossil fuels, in every
energy end-use and transformation sector;
2. The substitution of fossil fuel-based electricity
with low-carbon sources such as nuclear or
renewable energy or with fossil fuel power
plants equipped with carbon capture and
storage (CCS) technology;
3. The electrifi cation of energy use in buildings,
industry and transport sectors, whenever
possible.
Nuclear Power
and the Paris Agreement
All low-carbon energy technologies, including nuclear power, are needed to meet the
Paris Agreement goal of limiting the rise of global temperatures to below 2°C. This
paper summarizes the potential role of nuclear power in climate change mitigation and
sustainable development.
+0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6
Degrees Celsius
Paris Agreement target
Estimates with INDCs
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What is the role of nuclear power in current
national climate mitigation strategies?
In the INDC submissions, ten countries explicitly
listed nuclear power in their national climate
strategies, including fi ve countries currently with
nuclear power programmes (Argentina, China, India,
Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan), two with reactors
under construction (Belarus, United Arab Emirates),
and three prospective users (Jordan, Niger, Turkey).
Driven by its rapidly growing electricity needs, India
has the most ambitious nuclear deployment plans,
with an eight-fold increase in nuclear capacity
relative to current levels, in order to meet their
national climate objective. Also, the targets set by
China, in its 13th Five Year Plan, pave the way for
a fi ve-fold increase in nuclear capacity by 2030
relative to current levels. Additional countries are
expected to further defi ne roles for nuclear power
in their NDC submissions. In particular, the United
States and the European Union are expected to
replace some retiring reactors and could add new
units to complement other low-carbon measures.
NUCLEAR POWER AS A
LOW-CARBON TECHNOLOGY
Is nuclear power a suitable option to address
climate change mitigation?
Nuclear power, along with hydropower and wind
energy, produces one of the lowest GHG emissions
per unit of electricity generated on a life cycle basis
(i.e. construction, operation, decommissioning,
waste management) (Fig. 2) (IAEA, 2016a).
Figure 2. Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from
low-carbon electricity sources.
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Nuclear power can be an effective technological
option in mitigating climate change, as emphasized
in long-term projections by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change and the International
Energy Agency. Decarbonization of the power sector
also calls on signifi cant use of coal and natural gas
with CCS. However, CCS produces higher GHGs
emissions than nuclear power and many technical
and economic uncertainties remain.
Nuclear power, together with hydropower
and wind-based electricity, is among the
lowest greenhouse gas emitters.
Whether nuclear power is used to mitigate climate
change remains the sovereign right and decision
of each country. All countries have the right to use
nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, as well
as the responsibility to do so safely and securely.
How has nuclear power contributed to low-
carbon electricity historically?
Since the 1970s, low-carbon electricity supply
has undergone several waves of transformation.
The large scale deployment of nuclear capacity in
the 1970s and 1980s made nuclear power, along
with hydropower, key contributors to low-carbon
electricity worldwide (Fig. 3). Nuclear power saves
almost 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and other
GHG emissions each year and has avoided more
than 60 billion tonnes of emissions over the 1970-
2015 period. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident
in 2011 led to a temporary decline in the number of
construction starts on new reactors due in part to
public concerns about nuclear safety, in addition to
weak economic conditions. Having seen the fastest
global deployment in recent years, wind and solar
capacity currently accounts for about 4% of global
electricity supply.
Presently, total low-carbon supply accounts for
only about 30% of electricity worldwide. The pace
of investment in low-carbon generation needs to
accelerate in order to achieve 100% decarbonized
power supply by mid-century to be in line with the
2°C target.
0 100 200 300
Coal CCS
Gas CCS
Biomass
Solar PV
Geothermal
Solar CSP
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
Grams of CO2-eq per kilowatt-hour
3
3
0%
15%
30%
45%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Hydropower
Nuclear
Other renewables
Low carbon total
Figure 3. Low carbon electricity generation share in
world total generation.
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THE PROSPECTS OF
NUCLEAR POWER
What potential for nuclear power deployment
does the IAEA see in the mid-term?
Climate change mitigation is one of the leading
reasons for the deployment of nuclear power. The
IAEA 2016 high case projection shows nuclear
power potentially reaching about 600 GW(e) of net
installed capacity by 2030 and about 900 GW(e)
by 2050, more than double the current worldwide
capacity of 383 GW(e).
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This level is derived from
a country-by-country assessment of development
potential, political objectives and orientations as
well as anticipated electricity requirements (IAEA,
2016b). The IAEA high case (Fig. 4) broadly follows
the nuclear power projections in the 2°C scenario of
the International Energy Agency.
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The nuclear capacity required to support
the Paris Agreement 2°C goal is more
than double the current level worldwide.
In the IAEA projections, the Far East will see the
biggest expansion, especially in China and the
Republic of Korea, while India is leading the
expansion in the Middle East and South Asia. There
is also sizeable potential for nuclear expansion in
the Russian Federation. By contrast, the prospects
for new constructions are lower in North America
and Western Europe.
Figure 4.
Changes in net installed nuclear capacities by
region in 2030 in the IAEA high case, in line with
the Paris Agreement 2°C goal (IAEA, 2016b).
The IAEA’s high case projection of about 900 GW(e)
capacity in 2050 translates into an annual pace of
capacity constructions close to the peak seen in the
early 1980s. However, this pace would need to be
sustained for decades, likely aided by governmental
support (IAEA, 2016a).
Is the potential for growth of nuclear power the
same across countries?
Drivers for nuclear growth change over time and
geographies. Currently, nuclear power provides 32%
of the total low-carbon power worldwide, with shares
above 50% in the United States and the European
Union. Growth of nuclear power is expected in
emerging markets, notably China and India, seeking
low-carbon alternatives to coal and natural gas-fi red
power stations, with a joint objective to address
acute local pollution. Ongoing development plans
in the Russian Federation highlight the key role
of nuclear power in low-carbon electricity supply.
Moderate nuclear growth in the United States and
stagnation in the European Union, together with
swift developments in renewable electricity, translate
into lower nuclear shares in low-carbon electricity
by 2030 (Fig. 5).
Nuclear power can potentially maintain an
important share of low-carbon electricity
worldwide by 2030.
Far East
383 GW(e)
598 GW(e)
Middle East and
South Asia
Africa
Europe and Russian
Federation
North and South
America
World installed
capacity in 2015
+122
+41
+7
+25
+21
World installed capacity in 2030
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Figure 5. The contribution of nuclear power to low-
carbon electricity generation in selected
countries in line with the Paris agreement
2°C goal.
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What is the challenge for the existing nuclear fl eet?
Although nuclear power has made a signifi cant
contribution to avoiding carbon emissions for the
past 45 years, the challenge ahead is to keep pace
with the demand for low-carbon energy to meet
the 2˚C goal. Rapid deployment is constrained by
long-term planning and construction times as well
as industrial production limitations, especially for
nuclear power plant components. In terms of unit
construction requirements, the challenge is two-fold:
replacing retiring units while also ramping up
capacity in new markets. Replacing ageing capacity
without causing a break or loss in output is a
pressing issue for countries with the oldest nuclear
power programmes.
Nuclear power made signifi cant
contributions to carbon avoidance in the
past, but its continued role faces many
challenges in supporting the 2˚C target.
Almost two thirds of nuclear power plants are
more than 30 years old, with 60% of them located
in France, Japan and the United States (Fig. 6).
Alternatively, nuclear reactors in China account for
one third of total capacity less than 20 years old.
Assuming licence extensions to 60 years (the United
States is even considering further extensions), less
than a third of currently installed nuclear capacity
would still be operating by mid-century.
Figure 6. Age distribution of operating nuclear power
plants (IAEA PRIS database).
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Public support plays a key role in any nuclear
power programme. The public must be confi dent
that existing plants will continue to operate safely,
and that new plants will be held to the highest
of safety standards. Importantly, a robust safety
culture at nuclear power plants must be maintained
through continuous capacity building and open
communication with stakeholders. To protect
people and the environment from the harmful effects
of ionizing radiation, the IAEA helps countries
strengthen nuclear safety, emergency preparedness
and radiation protection.
THE NEED TO FOSTER
LOW-CARBON INVESTMENTS
Do current trends in investments, technological
developments and supporting policy measures
place us on the right track for a timely
transition towards the 2°C goal?
In order to pave the way for a low-carbon economy,
countries need to effectively implement their
planned strategies and fi nancial commitments into
clean energy investments. In 2014, investments
in energy effi ciency, renewables, nuclear power
and carbon capture and storage in the power and
industry sectors, reached US$470 billion. US$130
billion were dedicated to energy effi ciency, on par
with current levels of investments in new coal and
natural gas power capacity.
53%
48%
15%
9%
40%
35%
47%
20%
29%
59%
32%
28%
World average
China
India
Russian Federation
European Union
United States
2013 2030
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On average, about US$80 billion would need
to be invested in nuclear power annually
through to 2030 to meet the 2°C goal.
According to the International Energy Agency, by
2030, the transition requires a more than doubling
in low-carbon investments, or more than US$1,100
billion invested annually over the 2015−2030
period. Almost two thirds (US$700 billion) of total
investments during this period are required annually
for the implementation of energy effi ciency measures.
In other words, the 28% share of energy effi ciency
investments within total low-carbon investments
would need to go up to 62% by 2030. Low carbon
power supply makes up for the remaining third of
total investments but still amounts to US$400 billion
per year. Almost a fi fth of this investment (US$80
billion annually) would go towards nuclear power
plants. This level triples current levels of nuclear
investments and compares with cumulative nuclear
investments in China through to 2020 (Fig. 7).
Figure 7. Low carbon capital investments in line with
the Paris Agreement 2°C goal.
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Where are the investments for full-scale nuclear
power deployment being made?
A full-scale deployment of nuclear power would
mean the realization of all proposed nuclear projects
worldwide by 2030, which would correspond
to the IAEA’s high projections. Two thirds of
nuclear investments are foreseen in fast-growing
economies. Driven by considerable need for power
and air pollution imperatives, China’s nuclear
constructions may attract a third of investments
during the next decade. In the longer run, policy
orientations towards diversifi cation of energy supply
in conjunction with decarbonization and economic
stimulation strategies may boost the development
of nuclear infrastructure programmes in India and
other Southeast-Asian countries and potentially in
Africa. Those countries may become key recipients
of global nuclear investments.
COMPETITIVENESS AND
FINANCING OF NUCLEAR POWER
What are the necessary conditions for a
competitive nuclear power sector?
A long-term perspective is needed when evaluating
investments in nuclear power plants, including the
economic and environmental benefi ts that accrue
over the lifetime of a project. Large nuclear power
plants have high up-front capital costs and long lead
times, which are common to major infrastructure
projects such as hydroelectric dams or airports. This
makes the economics of nuclear power projects
highly dependent on the cost of capital, requiring
careful management and allocation of project risks
to secure fi nancing at favourable terms. Exposure
to market risks can be highly detrimental to project
feasibility, and nuclear projects in liberalized
markets may require contractual arrangements to
remove or signifi cantly reduce such risks. Various
fi nancial arrangements are emerging, ranging from
government-to-government fi nancing model to loan
guarantees, vendor-fi nancing schemes or power
purchase agreements (IAEA, 2016c-d).
Investments in nuclear power
cannot be short-sighted but must
account for the long-term economic
and environmental benefi ts.
Which economic and environmental factors
should be considered in comparing energy
technologies?
The economics of nuclear power improves
signifi cantly when total system costs of different
generating technologies are considered. These
include not only the generation costs at the plant
level but also grid-level and environmental costs.
Grid-level costs include the additional investments
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to extend and reinforce transport and distribution
grids, to connect new capacity to the grid. They
also include the cost for increased short-term
balancing and for maintaining long-term adequacy
of electricity supply in face of variable renewables.
These are real monetary costs that are incurred by
producers, consumers and transport grid operators.
A comprehensive assessment of the economics
of generation technologies would also factor in
environmental aspects or effects on the wider
economy.
Which instruments and market mechanisms
could support nuclear competitiveness? What
is the role of carbon pricing?
The Paris Agreement establishes an international
policy framework that is expected to create more
favourable and predictable conditions for low-
carbon investments. For an effective transition to a
low-carbon economy, it is essential that consumer
prices refl ect any environmental damage caused.
Possible solutions include progressively removing
government support to high-carbon consumption
and production, and putting a price on carbon
emissions.
Carbon prices would improve the
economics of nuclear power.
A careful implementation of carbon pricing
mechanisms encourages polluters to reduce
emissions in favour of low-carbon alternatives.
Carbon pricing can compensate for cheap fossil
fuel electricity generation that deter renewable
and nuclear power operations. Almost half of
INDCs submitted to date mention the reliance on
carbon markets.
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Initiatives such as the Carbon
Pricing Leadership Coalition, which brings together
governments, businesses and civil society groups,
are gaining momentum.
In the Paris Agreement, domestic policies and
carbon pricing are recognized as important factors
in advancing emission reductions. In addition, a
new market mechanism currently under negotiation
would create linkages between various climate
mitigation measures.
Would ambitious climate action facilitate the
fi nancing of nuclear power?
The Paris Agreement and subsequent negotiations
may give rise to innovative and more secured
fi nancing schemes at competitive terms. Most
importantly, governmental action to timely
implement domestic climate strategies will provide
investors with clear incentives to scale up their low-
carbon projects, which could improve the fi nancing
of nuclear power projects.
What is the role for nuclear technology
innovation in climate change mitigation?
Innovation is essential to foster the deployment of
more affordable and more sustainable low-carbon
technologies. For nuclear power, advancements
can improve performance and safety and can help
extend the operation life of reactors. Currently,
nuclear power mainly supplies electricity, but
innovation opens up additional areas to contribute
to emission reduction, including non-electric
applications such as desalination, process heat
and energy storage. The Paris Agreement provides
a platform for enhanced technological innovation
and supports cooperation as well as knowledge
transfer. There are many opportunities for innovation
to advance nuclear energy in addressing climate
change, including new reactor designs such as
small modular reactors (IAEA, 2016e) and advanced
fuel cycles. Some designs for innovative nuclear
plants exist and many others are in development.
However, more investment in research, development
and demonstration is needed.
NUCLEAR POWER AND THE
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
AGENDA
How does nuclear power contribute to the
Sustainable Development Agenda?
In addition to the Paris Agreement, the year 2015
saw the adoption of the United Nations resolution
Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development. This Agenda calls on
countries to begin efforts to achieve 17 Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) over the next 15 years,
focusing on fi ve elements: people, planet, peace,
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Figure 8. Focus areas for nuclear power in helping to achieve the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals.
Nuclear power is a large-scale, low-greenhouse gas energy source that can continue to make a
signifi cant contribution to the Paris Agreement 2˚C goal and the UN Sustainable Development
Goals. To tap the full potential of nuclear energy, signifi cant capital investments are needed.
However, deployment is hindered by high capital costs, unfavourable market and fi nance
conditions, and public concerns. The Paris Agreement’s impetus for economies to decarbonize
should create a favourable environment for nuclear power expansion. Countries that opt for
nuclear power can detail its role in their future Nationally Determined Contribution submissions.
prosperity and partnership. Taking urgent action to
combat climate change and its impacts is at the
heart of the overall sustainable development vision.
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Meeting the Paris Agreement goal would contribute
to the economic, environmental and social benefi ts
that will help meet every other SDG, particularly in
African countries (IAEA, 2015, 2016f).
Nuclear power can contribute to the
achievement of multiple sustainable
development goals.
Nuclear power is not only an important source of
electricity; it contributes to many of the sustainable
development goals (Fig. 8). Constructing and
operating nuclear plants helps stabilize electricity
prices, thus moderating electricity bills for
households and businesses. It creates jobs, boosts
the local economy and produces no local air
pollution. For a number of sustainable development
indicators, nuclear power compares favourably with
other power generation technologies (IAEA, 2016g).
Beyond the power generation domain, nuclear
science and technologies can also help address
multiple SDGs and offer enormous benefi ts in many
areas of our lives, including medicine, food and
clean water production.
SDGs 16, 17: The use of nuclear power encourages cross-border
sharing of experiences in the implementa on of nuclear security,
safety and safeguards regula ons at internaonal forums
SDG9: Nuclear
power can provide a
reliable energy
infrastructure which
is a prerequisite for
industrial value
creaon and wealth
redistribuon, and
an opportunity to
innovate
SDG 13: Nuclear
power lies among the
electricity sources
with the lowest
carbon footprint
SDG8: Nuclear power development smulates economic
acvity, creates employment and improves living condions
of the poorest
SDG7: : Energy is the enabler of
development. Nuclear power can
help achieve the other SGDs
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To learn more about the role of nuclear power in climate change mitigation, please see:
https://www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/Pess/
IAEA (2015), Indicators for Nuclear Power Development, IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-T-4.5,
STI/PUB/1712, November 2015, IAEA, Vienna.
IAEA (2016a), Climate Change and Nuclear Power, IAEA, Vienna.
IAEA (2016b), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, Reference Data
Series, No. 1, IAEA, Vienna.
IAEA (2016c), Managing the Financial Risk Associated with the Financing of New NPP Projects, IAEA, Vienna.
IAEA (2016d), Impacts of Electricity Market Reforms on the Choice of Nuclear and Other Generation
Technologies, TECDOC-1789, May 2016, IAEA, Vienna.
IAEA (2016e), Advances in Small Modular Reactor Technology Developments A Supplement to: IAEA
Advanced Reactors Information System (ARIS), 2016 Edition, IAEA, Vienna.
IAEA (2016f), Sustainable Electricity Supply Scenarios for West Africa, TECDOC-1793, June 2016, IAEA, Vienna.
IAEA (2016g), Nuclear Power and Sustainable Development, IAEA, Vienna.
Endnotes
1
Source: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Paris (2015), Adoption of the Paris
Agreement, Document FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1.
2
Source: Adapted from World Resources Institutes (2015), INSIDER: Why Are INDC Studies Reaching Different
Temperature Estimates?, WRI, Washington, D.C.
3
Note: CCS: Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage; PV: Photovoltaics; CSP: Concentrating Solar Power.
4
Other renewables include bioenergy, geothermal, wind, solar, ocean and fuel cells energy source. Source:
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2015), Electricity Information, OECD/IEA, Paris.
5
The IAEA projects about 900 GW(e) of net installed capacity by 2050 in the high estimate. Alternatively, a
conservative IAEA Low estimate assumes a lack of incentives for a large scale deployment and only maintains
global installed capacity to current levels by 2030.
6
IEA (2016), Energy Technology Perspectives, OECD/IEA, Paris.
7
Sources: 2013 data: IEA (2015), Electricity Information. 2030 data: IEA 450 Scenario; IEA (2015), World Energy
Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris.
8
Sources: IAEA (2016), based on IAEA PRIS database https://www.iaea.org/pris/; IAEA (2016), Energy, Electricity
and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, Reference Data Series No. 1
, IAEA, Vienna.
9
Sources: IAEA (2016), Climate Change and Nuclear Power, IAEA, Vienna. 2030 data: IEA 450 Scenario, IEA
(2014), World Energy Investment Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris; IEA (2015), World Energy Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris.
10
Environmental Defence Fund, International Emission Trading Association (2016), Carbon Pricing, The Paris
Agreement’s Key Ingredient, EDF-IETA, New York.
11
In a 1 March 2016 address to the United Nations Association - UK, the United Nations Secretary General Ban
Ki-moon stressed: “One important cross-cutting element of the SDGs is the need to combat climate change.
The subject of its own Goal 13, climate action is also directly or indirectly related to realising almost all the other
goals.” http://www.sustainablegoals.org.uk/the-peoples-agenda/
Department of Nuclear Energy
International Atomic Energy Agency
Vienna International Centre, PO Box 100, 1400 Vienna, Austria
Telephone: +43 1 2600-0; Fax: +43 1 2600-7
http://www.iaea.org/NuclearEnergy
twitter.com/IAEANE
November 2016
16-43451
>30%
of world’s low-
carbon electricity
11%
of world’s electricity
440+
reactors in operation