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I. INTRODUCTION
This paper uses an econometric model of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR to
assess the effectiveness of alternative policies in curbing pressures on property prices. The
fundamental drivers of the real property price are real GDP per capital, real domestic credit,
construction costs, land supply, and the real interest rate. Policy can influence the property
market through land supply and interest rates but also prudential and tax policy. The latter
include two instruments that the authorities have recently relied on extensively: a stamp duty on
property transactions; and the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on bank lending. Since these
instruments are adjusted infrequently, we supplement model estimation with an event-study of
their impact on property market transactions as well as price.
A co-integration estimation methodology is used because tests show that property prices and the
macroeconomic fundamentals are co-integrated. This involves a two stage process where we first
estimate the long run co-integrating relationship among these variables and, second, the short run
dynamic relationship using an error correction equation. In the latter equation we can include the
stationary (i.e. not co-integrated) policy variables – the LTV and stamp duty – to assess their
impact. The model performs well statistically in that the recent, rapid rise in property prices is
well explained by highly supportive macroeconomic fundamentals and the “equilibrium” price
derived from the model tracks the actual price relatively closely.
The estimation results show that real GDP per capita has the strongest long run influence on
property prices followed by land supply, which works with a significant lag. The real interest
rate and an index of construction costs have less strong effects while real domestic credit has the
weakest impact. The LTV ratio and stamp duty both have statistically significant effects on price,
although the latter is very small. These effects are temporary and, thus, can slow, but not
fundamentally alter, the rising trend in property prices.
The results suggest that policy should focus on raising land supply to restrain property price
increases over the long run. However, the significant lag with which it has an effect means that
care is needed to avoid exacerbating the property price cycle. The real interest rate also has a
long run influence on price and may rise with a tightening of liquidity conditions related to
stricter macroprudential policies. The LTV and stamp duty dampen speculative activity that
drives up property prices. While these policies can slow the increase in the short run, they should
be guided by their long run objectives of financial stability and counteracting speculation.
II. P
OLICIES TO RESTRAIN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICES IN HONG KONG SAR
The surge in housing prices since mid-2009 raised concern about a build-up of risks in the
housing sector, leading the authorities to adopt a number of policy measures to contain them.
These measures fall into three categories: (i) prudential measures, particularly reductions in LTV
limits; (ii) anti-property market speculation measures, such as the special stamp duty tax on
transactions; (iii) increases in land supply policy to boost the number of apartments (Figures 1-2).