Q4FY24 Result Review
HOLD
Beat on top-line despite margin pressure
Jindal Steel & Power
Summary
Jindal Steel & Power (JSPL) revenue was ahead of our forecast. Revenue grew
15% QoQ to Rs134.8bn. Sales volumes increased by 11% QoQ to 2.01 mn tonnes
due to higher exports. The export contributed 11% to total volumes (vs. 3% in
Q3FY24). However, EBITDA declined by 14% QoQ to Rs24.4 bn due to lower
realization (down 5% QoQ) and high coking coal prices. Value added products
contributed 64% to sales in FY24 (vs. 63% in FY23). Q4FY24 PAT fell 52% YoY to
Rs9.3 bn due to impairment provision of Rs3.6 bn of Australian mine. We cut
our FY25 EBITDA estimate by 4% and broadly maintain FY26 EBITDA forecast.
We value the stock based on EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x FY26E EBITDA to derive a
Target Price of Rs 863 (earlier Rs742). We maintain HOLD rating on the stock
given our neutral stance on the steel sector due to rising exports from China.
Key Highlights and Investment Rationale
Focus on capacity expansion: JSPL aims to double its capacity at Angul by
FY25. JSPL plans to commission Pellet plant-II with a capacity of 6MTPA by the
end of Q4FY25. Also, BOF-II/BOF-III with a capacity 3.3/3.0 MTPA will be
commissioned in Q2/Q4FY25. The other projects BF-II with a capacity of
4.6MTPA ASU, Coke oven, RMHS and ACPP-II 1,050 MW are likely to be
commissioned in Q2FY25. By the end of FY25 the total crude steel capacity will
be at 15.9MTPA vs. 9.6 MTPA in FY24.
Other updates: Infrastructure segment contributed most at 39%, Trade and
retail contributed 33%, and rest by others. HSM hit a run rate of 3 mt in
Q4FY24 and expect to achieve run rate 3.5 mt in FY25 and 6.0 mt by FY26.
JSPL
is focusing on converting semi-finished products into value-added
finished goods to boost the bottom line. Currently, semi-finished goods
volume stands at 1.4 mt.
Financial snapshot
(Rs bn)
Year
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
Revenue
511
527
500
560
656
Change (yoy, %)
31
3
(5)
12
17
EBITDA
155
99
102
121
149
Change (yoy, %)
7
(36)
3
19
23
EBITDA Margin(%)
30.4
18.8
20.4
21.6
22.8
Adj.PAT
87
46
59
62
82
EPS (Rs)
86
45
59
61
82
Change (yoy, %)
31.0
(47.0)
30.6
3.6
33.6
PE(x)
11
21
16
15
11
Dividend Yield (%)
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
6.7
10.3
10.4
8.5
6.5
RoE (%)
25.7
12.3
14.3
13.1
14.3
RoCE (%)
23.0
12.4
11.6
13.2
15.6
Source: IDBI Capital Research
May 14, 2024
TP Rs863
CMP Rs939
Potential upside/downside -8%
Previous Rating HOLD
-1m -3m -12m
Absolute 4.7 27.3 63.7
Rel to Sensex 6.7 25.6 46.4
Price Performance (%)
Promoters 61.2
FII 11.9
DII 14.0
Public 12.9
Shareholding Pattern (%)
EBITDA (Rs bn) FY25E FY26E
IDBI Capital 61 82
Consensus 63 87
% difference (3.8) (5.8)
V/s Consensus
Key Stock Data
Bloomberg / Reuters JSP IN / JNSP.BO
Sector Metal & Mining
Shares o/s (mn) 1,020
Market cap. (Rs mn) 958,169
3-m daily average value (Rs mn) 101.8
52-week high / low Rs960 / 503
Sensex / Nifty 72,776 / 22,104
Ajit Sahu
ajit.sahu@idbicapital.com
+91-22-4069 1849
Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
2
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Snapshot (Rs mn)
Financial snapshot
Q4FY24
Q3FY24
QoQ (%)
Q4FY23
YoY (%)
Net Sales
1,34,870
1,17,013
15.3
1,36,919
(1.5)
Total expenditure
1,10,425
88,588
24.7
1,15,047
(4.0)
EBITDA
24,444
28,425
(14.0)
21,872
11.8
EBITDA/tonne
12,161
15,705
(22.6)
10,775
12.9
EBITDA margin (%)
18.1%
24.3%
-617bps
16.0%
215bps
Interest
3,206
3,151
1.7
3,712
(13.6)
Depreciation
9,949
6,357
56.5
8,729
14.0
PBT
11,633
19,268
(39.6)
8,055
44.4
Tax
2,301
-10
nm
3,398
(32.3)
PAT
9,332
19,278
(51.6)
4,656
100.4
Diluted EPS
9.3
19.2
(51.5)
4.5
105.8
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research
Exhibit 2: Actual vs estimates (Rs mn)
Q4FY24E
Q4FY24A
% Variance
Net sales
1,19,939
1,34,870
12.4
EBTIDA
25,259
24,444
(3.2)
Margin (%)
21.1
18.1
-294bps
PAT
11,996
9,332
(22.2)
Dil. EPS
12.4
9.3
(24.8)
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research
Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
3
Exhibit 3: Steel volumes up by 11% QoQ
Exhibit 4: Consoldiated EBIDTA margins down 617
bps QoQ
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research
Exhibit 5: Consolidated EBIDTA down 14% YoY
Exhibit 6: Net debt higher QoQ
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research
2.03
1.84
1.90
1.81
2.01
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
(mn tonnes)
16.0%
20.9%
18.7%
24.3%
18.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
22
26
23
28
24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
(Rs bn)
70
68
73
91
112
30
130
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
(Rs bn)
Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
4
Exhibit 7: SOTP-based valuation (Rs bn)
INR bn
FY26E
Conolidated EBITDA
153
Multiple (x)
6
Derived enterprise value
916
Less: net debt
31
Derived equity value
886
No of shares (mn)
1002
Target price (Rs/share)
863
Source: IDBI Capital Research; *Note: Power business sold in Q1FY23
Conference call Highlights
Export share increased from 3% to 11% QoQ.
PAT declined by 52% QoQ, attributed to an impairment provision of 360 crore for the Australian mine.
Current utilization stands at 1 million tonnes for Gare Palma and 0.9 million tonnes for Utkal C.
HSM utilization expected to reach around 3-3.5 million tonnes this year.
Pallet plant utilization levels are around 9,000-10,000 tonnes per day.
The company is focusing on converting semi-finished products into value-added finished goods to enhance
the bottom line, with a volume of semi-finished goods standing at 1.4 million tonnes.
Coal blocks Utkal B1 and B2 are anticipated to commence operations within a year.
The operating capacity of Gare Palma, IV/6, and Utkal C will increase to 5 million tonnes.
HSM utilization is projected to reach 6 million tonnes next year.
Cap-Ex guidance ranges between Rs 7,500 and 10,000 crore, contingent on EBITDA levels, with Rs 2,500 cr
expected for maintenance.
Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
5
Mining at the Australian mine has halted and is currently under care and maintenance. As a result,
impairment testing was conducted, leading to a provision of 360 crore. It is anticipated that the mine will
operate on a single shaft basis in the future.
Exhibit 8: Change in estimates
FY25E
FY26E
Old
New
(%) Chg
Old
New
(%) Chg
Revenue (Rs bn)
597
560
(6.1)
656
656
(0.1)
EBITDA (Rs bn)
126
121
(3.9)
150
149
(0.4)
EBITDA margin (%)
21
21.6
60bps
22.8
22.8
0bps
Adj. Net profit (Rs bn)
66.5
62
(7.4)
85.3
82.2
(3.6)
Adj. EPS (Rs)
66.1
61.4
(7.1)
84.9
82.0
(3.4)
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research
Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
6
Financial Summary
Profit & Loss Account (Rs bn)
Year-end: March
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
Net sales
390
511
527
500
560
656
Change (yoy, %)
5.6
31
3
(5)
12
17
Operating expenses
(245)
(356)
(428)
(398)
(439)
(506)
EBITDA
144
155
99
102
121
149
Change (yoy, %)
83.9
7
(36)
3
19
23
Margin (%)
37.0
30.4
18.8
20.4
21.6
22.8
Depreciation
(35)
(21)
(27)
(28)
(28)
(29)
EBIT
110
134
72
74
93
121
Interest paid
(31)
(19)
(14)
(13)
(12)
(13)
Other income
5
1
1
2
2
2
Pre-tax profit
73
112
45
62
82
110
Tax
(18)
(29)
(13)
(3)
(21)
(27)
Effective tax rate (%)
24.2
26.2
28.8
4.8
25.0
25.0
Minority Interest
-
-
-
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
Net profit
55
82
32
59
62
82
Exceptional items
(11)
(4)
(14)
-
-
-
Adjusted net profit
67
87
46
59
62
82
Change (yoy, %)
nm
30
(47)
30
4
34
EPS
65.4
85.6
45.4
59.3
61.4
82.0
Dividend per sh
-
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Dividend Payout %
-
2.4
6.7
7
8
7
Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
7
Balance Sheet (Rs bn)
Year-end: March
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
Shareholders' funds
318
356
387
443
500
576
Share capital
1
1
1
1
1
1
Reserves & surplus
317
355
386
442
499
575
Total Debt
216
129
124
159
139
119
Other liabilities
62
80
74
75
75
194
Curr Liab & prov
191
187
106
106
133
155
Current liabilities
187
182
102
101
128
150
Provisions
4
5
4
5
5
5
Total liabilities
469
395
304
340
347
343
Total equity & liabilities
778
766
694
787
851
924
1
Net fixed assets
561
480
514
580
641
672
Investments
12
5
9
8
8
8
Other non-curr assets
13
19
24
28
28
28
Current assets
193
263
147
171
174
215
Inventories
59
73
59
71
65
72
Sundry Debtors
28
13
10
17
12
13
Cash and Bank
62
37
47
40
54
87
Other current assets
44
141
31
43
43
43
Total assets
778
766
694
787
851
924
Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
8
Cash Flow Statement (Rs bn)
Year-end: March
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
Pre-tax profit
73
112
45
62
82
110
Depreciation
13
21
27
28
28
29
Tax paid
(12)
(19)
(26)
(3)
(21)
(27)
Chg in working capital
32
(2)
(64)
(19)
38
8
Other operating activities
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash flow from operations (a)
106
112
(18)
69
128
119
Capital expenditure
151
59
(61)
(94)
(89)
(60)
Chg in investments
(10)
7
(4)
1
0
0
Other investing activities
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash flow from investing (b)
142
66
(65)
(93)
(89)
(60)
Equity raised/(repaid)
-
(0)
(0)
(0)
-
-
Debt raised/(repaid)
(141)
(87)
(4)
35
(20)
(20)
Dividend (incl. tax)
-
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Chg in monorities
(1)
23
(12)
1
(0)
(0)
Other financing activities
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash flow from financing (c)
(142)
(65)
(19)
32
(25)
(26)
Net chg in cash (a+b+c)
106
112
(103)
7
13
33
Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
9
Financial Ratios
Year-end: March
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
Book Value (Rs)
312
352
385
442
499
575
Adj EPS (Rs)
65.4
85.6
45.4
59.3
61.4
82.0
Adj EPS growth (%)
nm
31
-47
31
4
34
EBITDA margin (%)
37.0
30.4
18.8
20.4
21.6
22.8
Pre-tax margin (%)
18.7
21.9
8.5
12.5
14.6
16.7
Net Debt/Equity (x)
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
ROCE (%)
16.7
23
12
12
13
16
ROE (%)
20.9
26
12
14
13
14
DuPont Analysis
Asset turnover (x)
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Leverage factor (x)
2.6
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
Net margin (%)
17.1
16.9
8.7
11.9
11.0
12.5
Working Capital & Liquidity ratio
Inventory days
56
52
41
52
42
40
Receivable days
26
9
7
12
8
7
Payable days
72
54
40
43
45
45
Valuations
Year-end: March
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
PER (x)
14.4
11.0
20.7
15.8
15.3
11.4
Price/Book value (x)
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.6
EV/Net sales (x)
2.9
2.0
1.9
2.1
1.8
1.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.7
6.7
10.3
10.4
8.5
6.5
Dividend Yield (%)
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research
Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
10
Notes
Dealing
(91-22) 6836 1111
Key to Ratings Stocks:
BUY: 15%+; HOLD: -5% to 15%; SELL: -5% and below.
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Jindal Steel & Power | Q4FY24 Result Review
11
Analyst Disclosures
I, Ajit Sahu, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject companies and / or securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations
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Company. We or our associates may have received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months. We or our associates may
have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received any compensation or other benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the research report. Research Analyst or his/her relative’s
may have financial interest in the subject company. IDBI Capital or its associates may have financial interest in the subject company. Research Analyst or his/her relatives does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. IDBI Capital or its associates may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research
Report. The Subject Company may have been a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report. Price history of the daily closing price of the securities covered in this note is available at www.bseindia.com; www.nseindia.com and
www.economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes.
