PPF risk developments continued
We consider ourselves Financially Resilient when we have sucient reserves to cover both Priority
1 and Priority 2 reserves, i.e. longevity reserves for our current members and reserves for future
claims. However, our aim is to achieve Priority 3 reserves, i.e. additional reserves above those
needed to meet the Financial Resilience test, to provide better protection for both our current and
future members. As the universe we protect matures and declines, it will be dicult to raise a
material levy. By building additional reserves – through our investment returns – our aim is to
reduce the risk of having to go back to ask levy payers to contribute more in the future.
Summary of modelling
To understand the level of protection aorded by our reserves and how likely we are to meet our
Financial Resilience test in the future we use the Long-Term Risk Model (LTRM), a Monte Carlo
simulation model. This model runs a million dierent scenarios to project what the future may
look like, allowing for future claims, levies, investment returns and changes in economic conditions.
Like any complex modelling exercise, the projections are subject to significant uncertainty and our
success ultimately depends on some factors outside of our control.
No model can perfectly predict the future, and the LTRM is no exception. The base case projections
are based on a series of assumptions, which we continually refine to reflect how experience and
expectations develop over time. We assume that our broad approach to levy will not change. Our
investment strategy is assumed to remain unchanged in the medium term, and then to gradually
de-risk as we move from our maturing phase to our final run-o phase. Schemes are assumed to
transition gradually to a low-risk investment strategy, and to keep receiving deficit-reduction
contributions (DRCs) if they are underfunded.
The fan chart in figure 12.1 below shows the recent history of our funding level up to 2022,
followed by LTRM projections of how it might develop in the future. Projections are shown for the
period up to 2035, which is the earliest we expect to move from our current maturing phase to our
run-o phase. The chart shows that, based on our current strategy, in most scenarios our funding
level is expected to rise as investment returns plus income from levy exceed claims. Also, even in
more extreme scenarios, the funding level remains above 110 per cent, which is the amount
currently estimated as needed to cover our Priority 1 reserves.
Figure 12.1 | Projections of our funding level
60th/40th percentile
95th/5th percentile Mean Median
75th/25th percentile 90th/10th percentile
PPF funding level percentage
360
310
260
210
160
110
60
Year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Figure 12.2 below shows the history of claims as well as the distribution of modelled claims on
the fund beyond 2022. This is the risk our Priority 2 reserves are designed to protect against. As at
31 March 2022 we were close to having sucient reserves to meet out Financial Resilience test and
have a high likelihood of achieving it by the time of our next planned detailed review in 2025. The
chart also shows that in many of our modelled scenarios we can expect modest growth in our
cumulative claims, which is a defining feature of the maturing phase. We do still have some
scenarios where significant claims occur.
Figure 12.2 | Projections of cumulative claims
Cumulative claims (£bn)
17
15
13
11
9
7
Year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
60th/40th percentile
95th/5th percentile Mean Median
75th/25th percentile 90th/10th percentile
Risks not allowed for in our modelling and possible future
changes in the risk landscape
Like all financial services institutions, we are exposed to possible changes in the external
environment, which could have an impact on our finances but over which we have no or
limited influence. At this stage it would not be appropriate to incorporate all such factors into
our modelling and our funding targets. The following paragraphs discuss some of the most
material risks which we are currently monitoring.
Climate risk: We consider climate change as a systemic risk, which can aect the value of our
investments across the short, medium and long term. We have engaged with the Paris Aligned
Investment Initiative (PAII) and other initiatives to improve our management of these risks. As a
supporter of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), we commit to
reporting on our climate-related governance, strategy, risk management, and metrics and targets.
Our dedicated TCFD Climate Change Report
1
shares this information in-depth. Climate change
could, over the medium to long term, have a significant impact on the level of claims we receive.
This is due to impacts on the value of scheme asset portfolios and on sponsor insolvency risk.
Increased requirements on pension schemes for disclosure are likely to drive changes in approach
to investment. Also, longevity risk is potentially aected by climate change, which could impact
the reserves we need to meet our Financial Resilience Test. We continue to review and develop
approaches to help us understand the potential impact of climate change in our risk exposure.
COVID-19 pandemic: Although, so far, we have not experienced an increase in claims attributable
to COVID-19, due to government support for businesses, it is possible that longer-term consequences
will feed through to higher future claims. Also, the long-term impacts on life expectancies are still
unclear at this stage. Our modelling makes no allowance for longer-term expected impacts and
assumes no further improvements in life expectancy over the shorter term.
Macro-economic changes to the economy: The current macro-economic environment remains
volatile. There are a number of contributing factors which have led to both short-term and structural
changes. The ultimate extent of the structural changes is still somewhat uncertain at this stage.
Changes to working preferences are aecting the demand for certain types of goods and services.
Supply issues are aecting the availability of component parts and labour in certain sectors. The
current high inflation environment has been created by supply-demand imbalances, particularly in
the energy and food sectors; the medium-term outlook for inflation is still uncertain. These issues
may adversely impact the viability of sponsoring employers, which aects our biggest risk. The value
of our financial assets may also be aected. The impact of this may however be muted to some
extent as a high interest environment will act to improve funding for many schemes. This means
that even if insolvency rates do rise, we expect a low proportion to transfer to us.
Buy-out pricing: A material deterioration in buy-out pricing either through supply issues or
changes to underlying regulation could see the deficit in the universe we protect increase, hence
increasing claims risk. Conversely, increased competition or regulatory change could see pricing
become cheaper. This could in theory lead to a faster decline in the DB universe.
Commercial consolidators: Interest in consolidator vehicles continues to advance. However,
the shape and size of the market are relatively unclear, so at this stage we have made no specific
adjustments in our financial modelling. TPR has set out guidance for consolidators which indicates
that the risk these new models pose to our ability to meet our funding objectives will be limited.
At the time of writing one consolidator has been approved by TPR, but we have yet to see any
successful transfers.
TPR’s consultation on a new DB funding framework: TPR expects the draft code of practice
on funding to be published in late 2022. The new framework is expected to be operational from
September 2023. Its aim will be to increase the security of the benefits that have been promised
to members of DB schemes, which also has the impact of reducing the likelihood and scale of
claims on us.
Sensitivities
The LTRM output has been tested for sensitivity to a range of modelling assumptions. The sensitivity
tests aim to provide an insight into how the model outputs might be aected if future experience is
not as expected relative to the base case, best-estimate assumptions.
A selection of the more significant sensitivity scenarios tested this year are summarised in the table
below. Under each of these scenarios, we are comfortable that our current strategic decisions would
be unchanged.
The scenario having the most impact was a deterioration in funding by 10 per cent. In this scenario,
our Financial Resilience Test may take two funding cycles rather than one to be met. That said, the
coverage of future claims in this scenario remains very high.
Worsened funding levels for
the schemes we protect
Scheme s179 funding levels reduce by 10 percentage points as a
result of a decrease in asset values
Increased insolvency risk Transition probabilities for all credit rating downgrades are increased
by 10 per cent at all future times
Higher inflation and
nominal interest rates
Inflation and nominal interest rates increased by one percentage
point a year at all future times and all durations
Lower returns on
growth assets
Growth asset returns are 0.2 percentage points a year lower at all
future times
1 https://www.ppf.co.uk/sites/default/files/2021-09/PPF_ClimateChangeReport2021.pdf
The Purple Book 2022
44
The data
Scheme
demographics
Scheme
funding
Funding
sensitivities
Insolvency
risk
Asset
allocation
Risk
reduction
PPF levy
2021/22
Claims and
schemes in
assessment
Glossary
PPF
compensation
2021/22
Charts and tables
PPF risk
developments
Appendix
Overview
Executive
summary
Introduction