HUD PD&R Housing Market Profiles
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Ofce of Policy Development and Research
Overview
The Portland-South Portland (hereafter, Portland) metropolitan area
in southern Maine, along the Atlantic Coast, is coterminous with
the metropolitan statistical area of the same name, which consists
of Cumberland, Sagadahoc, and York Counties. The metropolitan
area is the economic center and the most populous metropolitan
area in Maine, accounting for 40 percent of the total population in
the state. Historically, the metropolitan area has been known for
economic activity—shipping, shipbuilding, and tourism—along the
waterfront, but has also become a regional center for health care
for southern Maine since 2008. During 2016, eight hospitals
in Cumberland and York Counties had an economic impact of
more than $3.4 billion on the state (Maine Hospital Association).
y As of June 1, 2019, the estimated population of the Portland
metropolitan area was 537,600, an average increase of
2,725, or 0.5 percent, a year since 2011, with net in-migration
increasing by an average of 2,575 people annually. From 2007
to 2011, a period that included the local economic downturn
and the national housing crisis, net in-migration averaged
60 people annually, resulting in average population growth
of 940 people, or 0.2 percent, a year.
y From 2011 to 2017, the retirement age portion of the
population, age 65 and older, in the metropolitan area,
increased by an average of 3,600, or 4.1 percent, annually
By Diana Villavicencio | As of June 1, 2019
Quick Facts About Portland-South Portland
Current sales market conditions: balanced
Current apartment market conditions: slightly tight
During the 3 months ending May 2019, the value
of goods imported by vessels through the Port
of Portland totaled approximately $539.0 million,
up 7 percent from the same period 1 year earlier;
the total value of goods exported through the
port was $65.6 million during the most recent
period, up 31 percent from the previous year
(U.S. Census Bureau).
Portland-South Portland, Maine
continued on page 2
continued from page 1
HUD PD&R Housing Market Proles
2
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research
Portland-South Portland, Maine
As of June 1, 2019
continued on page 3
(American Community Survey 1-year estimates). At 19
percent of the population in 2017, the Portland metropolitan
area has the highest concentration of people aged 65 and
older in the state.
y During the 2011-to-2017 period, the working-age population,
residents 18 to 64 years of age, increased by an average of
110, or less than 1 percent, a year, accounting for 62 percent
of the metropolitan area population in 2017.
Economic Conditions
Following the economic downturn that occurred in the Portland
metropolitan area from 2007 through 2010, nonfarm payrolls
increased an average of 1.4 percent annually from 2011 through
2018, but economic growth has recently decelerated. During
the 3 months ending May 2019, nonfarm payrolls were nearly
unchanged from the 3 months ending May 2018, increasing by
100 jobs, or less than 0.1 percent, to 207,400 jobs. The rate of
job growth in the metropolitan area lagged rates in Maine and
the nation, which grew at 0.3 and 1.6 percent, respectively,
during the 3 months ending May 2019.
During the 3 months ending May 2019—
y The largest increase and fastest rate of job growth in the
Portland metropolitan area occurred in the manufacturing
sector, up by 800 jobs, or 5.8 percent, to 14,500 jobs. Job
gains were supported by General Dynamics Bath Iron Works,
which designs, fabricates, and assembles ships for the United
States Navy; it was awarded a $910.7 million contract to build
a fifth DDG-51 Flight III destroyer in December 2018.
y Partially offsetting overall job growth were losses in the leisure
and hospitality and the transportation and utility sectors,
which declined by 800 and 600 jobs, or 3.6 and 9.7 percent,
respectively. During the period, the CAT high-speed ferry
service to Nova Scotia relocated its terminal to Bar Harbor,
Maine, outside of the metropolitan area; the number of jobs
lost is unknown.
y The wholesale and retail trade sector, the second largest
nonfarm payroll sector in the metropolitan area, lost 400 jobs,
or 1.2 percent. Part of the decrease is a result of the closing of
11 Payless ShoeSource Inc. stores in the metropolitan area from
March through May 2019 as the company prepared to close
the remaining 2,100 stores in the United States and Canada.
Although seven sectors added jobs in the Portland metropolitan area, nonfarm payrolls increased by only
100 jobs during the 3 months ending May 2019 relative to a year ago.
3 Months Ending Year-Over-Year Change
May 2018
(Thousands)
May 2019
(Thousands)
Absolute
(Thousands)
Percent
Total Nonfarm Payrolls 207. 3 207. 4 0.1 0.0
Goods-Producing Sectors 23.5 24.4 0.9 3.8
Mining, Logging, & Construction 9.8 9.9 0.1 1.0
Manufacturing 13.7 14.5 0.8 5.8
Service-Providing Sectors 183.8 183.0 -0.8 -0.4
Wholesale & Retail Trade 32.4 32.0 -0.4 -1.2
Transportation & Utilities 6.2 5.6 -0.6 -9.7
Information 3.4 3.2 -0.2 -5.9
Financial Activities 16.2 16.5 0.3 1.9
Professional & Business Services 28.9 29.0 0.1 0.3
Education & Health Services 42.2 42.7 0.5 1.2
Leisure & Hospitality 22.5 21.7 -0.8 -3.6
Other Services 7.9 8.1 0.2 2.5
Government 23.9 24.3 0.4 1.7
(Percent) (Percent)
Unemployment Rate 2.8 2.8
Note: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.
Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
continued from page 2
Sales Market Conditions
The sales housing market in the Portland metropolitan area is
currently balanced, with an estimated vacancy rate of 1.7 percent,
down from 1.9 percent in April 2010. Market conditions have
tightened since the housing market downturn that occurred from
2007 through 2010. During 2010, the supply of homes for sale was
15.2 months; as of May 1, 2019, this figure has fallen to 3.2 months
of supply (CoreLogic, Inc.). The economic recovery in the HMA
allowed for the absorption of the excess inventory of homes on the
market. Because of tighter sales market conditions, the percentage
of home loans in the Portland metropolitan area that were seriously
delinquent (90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure) or
transitioned into real estate owned (REO) status declined from 2.0
percent in April 2018 to 1.6 percent in April 2019 and down from the
high of 6.1 percent in April 2010 (CoreLogic, Inc.). The current rate
is below the rate of 2.4 percent for Maine, but above the 1.5-percent
rate for the nation.
During the 12 months ending April 2019—
y Approximately 9,100 existing homes (including single-family
homes, townhomes, and condominiums) sold in the metropolitan
area, down approximately 12 percent from the 10,300 homes
sold during the previous 12 months. The decline was partially a
result of a 21-percent decrease in REO sales, which fell to 240,
and a 24-percent drop in short sales, which totaled 100. Regular
resales declined 11 percent to 8,750 (CoreLogic, Inc., with
adjustments by the analyst).
y Due in part to the significant decline in REO and short sales,
the average sales price for existing homes increased 6 percent
to $323,000, faster than the 3-percent average annual increase
from 2011 through 2017.
y New home sales (including single-family homes, townhomes,
and condominiums) decreased 29 percent from a year earlier to
approximately 400 homes sold; the average sales price increased
HUD PD&R Housing Market Proles
3
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research
Portland-South Portland, Maine
As of June 1, 2019
continued on page 4
Note: Nonfarm payroll job growth.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
During the 3 months ending May 2019, job growth
in the Portland metropolitan area lagged the rate of
growth for the region and the nation for the first time
since 2015.
y The unemployment rate in the Portland metropolitan area
averaged 2.8 percent, unchanged from the same period
1 year earlier. The current unemployment rate is one of the
lowest rates since 2000, partly because of limited growth
in the working-age population.
The education and health services sector, which includes
MaineHealth, the largest employer in the metropolitan area,
is the largest nonfarm payroll sector, with 42,700 jobs, or nearly
21 percent of all nonfarm payrolls. During the 3 months ending
May 2019, the sector added 500 jobs or 1.2 percent. Much of
the recent job growth in the sector was to fill positions for the first
of three phases of a 5-year, $512 million expansion of the Maine
Medical Center, a member of MaineHealth. The first phase, which is
expected to be completed in late 2019, includes the addition of 64
cancer patient rooms. The remaining two phases, to be completed
by 2023, are expected to increase the overall footprint of the medical
center by 25 percent, making the expansion one of the largest in
the nation; the number of jobs to be added is unknown. In March
2019, MaineHealth announced a plan to build a $59 million medical
facility in the town of Scarborough that would offer neurological and
other specialty services. Completion is anticipated for early 2021,
adding an unknown number of jobs. Job growth in the education
and health services sector is also supported by Bowdoin College
and the University of New England, two private universities in the
metropolitan area. From 2017 through 2018, total staff (full-time and
part-time) at the two universities increased by 10 members, or nearly
1 percent, to approximately 1,575. The University of New England
had an economic impact of more than $1 billion across the state
of Maine during the 2016 academic year (Planning Decisions, Inc).
Largest Employers in the Portland Metropolitan Area
Name of Employer
Nonfarm
Payroll Sector
Number of
Employees
MaineHealth Education & Health Services 12,501–13,000
Portsmouth
Naval Shipyard
Government 6,450
General Dynamics
Bath Iron Works
Manufacturing 5,001–5,500
Notes: Excludes local school districts. Data for Portsmouth Naval Shipyard are civilian
employees for calendar year 2018. For all other employers, employees are as of the
third quarter of 2018.
Sources: Maine Department of Labor; Seacoast Shipyard Association Economic
Impact Report 2018
Percentage Change from Previous Year
(3-Month Average)
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
May 2010
May 2011
May 2012
May 2013
May 2014
May 2015
May 2016
May 2017
May 2018
May 2019
Portland Metropolitan Area
New England Region
Nation
nearly 2 percent to $337,100, only 4 percent higher than the
existing home sales price. From 2011 through 2017, new
home sale prices increased an average of 4 percent a year.
y Part of the increase in new home sales and prices was
attributed to increased development of relatively high-priced
condominiums, particularly in the city of Portland because
older householders downsized from larger, single-family homes
to reduce maintenance and utility costs. One of the newest
condominium developments in the metropolitan area is the
28-unit Twenty Thames, which was completed in November
2018; prices range from $500,000 to more than $2 million
for two- and three-bedroom units.
Homebuilding activity, as measured by the number of single-
family homes permitted, reached a low in 2011, but increased
from 2012 through 2017. During 2018 and 2019, rising labor,
land, and materials costs have, however, suppressed growth
in new home construction.
y During the 12 months ending May 2019, the number of
single-family homes permitted decreased 10 percent from
a year earlier, to 1,375 homes; this followed a 12-percent
increase during the previous 12 months (preliminary data).
During the most recent 12 months, permitting was distributed
broadly across the metropolitan area, with Cumberland,
York, and Sagadahoc Counties accounting for 54, 43,
and 3 percent of single-family permitting, respectively.
y In 2011, a year after the local economic contraction and
housing market downturn, 960 single-family homes were
permitted, before single-family permitting increased an average
13 percent a year from 2012 through 2017, a period when
local economic conditions improved.
y In the city of Saco, 17 miles south of downtown Portland,
the first phase of the Cascade Falls subdivision began in
2018, with 10 single-family homes and 32 condominium
units expected at completion; prices start at $370,000 for a two-
bedroom condominium unit. When the six phases are complete,
the community will feature 82 condominiums, 35 single-family
homes, and 72 apartment units; an additional three phases
could increase total housing units to 300 in the subdivision.
Note: Includes preliminary data from January 2019 through May 2019.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey
Single-family home permitting in the Portland
metropolitan area has reached high levels in 2017
and 2018, compared with other years, since 2010.
Single-Family Homes Permitted
2,000
1,8 00
1,60 0
1,40 0
1,20 0
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
HUD PD&R Housing Market Proles
4
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research
Portland-South Portland, Maine
As of June 1, 2019
continued from page 3
Note: New and existing homes sales prices include single-family homes,
townhomes, and condominiums.
Source: CoreLogic, Inc., with adjustments by the analyst
Existing home sale price growth has been below 10
percent since December 2012, and new home sales
price growth has been below 10 percent since August
2014 in the Portland metropolitan area.
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Percentage Change from Previous Year
(12-Month Average)
April 2008
April 2009
April 2010
April 2011
April 2012
April 2013
April 2014
April 2015
April 2016
April 2017
April 2018
April 2019
New Home Sales Prices
Existing Home Sales Prices
Note: New and existing home sales include single-family homes, townhomes,
and condominiums.
Source: CoreLogic, Inc., with adjustments by the analyst
New and existing home sales in the Portland
metropolitan area have shifted from growth to
a decline since late 2018.
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Percentage Change from Previous Year
(12 Months Ending)
April 2008
April 2009
April 2010
April 2011
April 2012
April 2013
April 2014
April 2015
April 2016
April 2017
April 2018
April 2019
New Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
REO = real estate owned.
Source: CoreLogic, Inc.
The rate of seriously delinquent mortgages and REO
properties has declined in the Portland metropolitan
area since the early 2010s but is currently above the
rate for the nation.
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Loans 90 or More Days Delinquent, in
Foreclosure, or Transitioned into REO
(%)
April 2008
April 2009
April 2010
April 2011
April 2012
April 2013
April 2014
April 2015
April 2016
April 2017
April 2018
April 2019
Portland Metropolitan Area
Maine
Nation
HUD PD&R Housing Market Proles
5
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research
Portland-South Portland, Maine
As of June 1, 2019
Apartment Market Conditions
The apartment market in the Portland metropolitan area is
currently slightly tight. The average rent continued to increase,
and the apartment vacancy rate steadily declined despite increased
multifamily construction because jobs and net in-migration have
increased since 2011. Conditions were softer in the earlier part of
the decade because significant numbers of single-family homes
entered the rental market when foreclosure activity in the
metropolitan area peaked.
During the first quarter of 2019—
y The apartment vacancy rate was 4.2 percent, down from 4.5
percent a year earlier and from 4.7 percent in 2010 (RealPage,
Inc.). Demand has exceeded supply as relatively high home sales
prices have prevented many renter households from pursuing
homeownership, leading to decreasing apartment vacancy rates.
y At 3.7 percent, the vacancy rate was lowest in the RealPage Inc.-
defined Portland/South Portland market area, near the economic
center and the most populous part of the metropolitan area, and
higher, at 4.7 percent, in the Outer Portland market area.
y The average apartment rent increased nearly 5 percent, to
$1,415, from the first quarter of 2018, and faster than the
4-percent average annual rent increase from 2011 through 2018.
Average rents increased 6 and 3 percent in the Portland/South
Portland and the Outer Portland metropolitan areas to $1,412
and $1,418, respectively.
y The rental market in the metropolitan area is notably affected by
the 18,000 students enrolled at the University of Southern Maine,
the University of New England, and Bowdoin College, where
approximately 13,200 students live off campus, accounting for
approximately 6 percent of renter households. Currently, the
Bowdoin College Park Row dormitory is under construction;
when the new dormitory is complete in the fall of 2019,
approximately 88 students will be housed at the property.
Despite a recent decline, multifamily construction is at a higher level
in the Portland metropolitan area compared with 2011, because of
improved economic conditions, increased population growth, and a
limited supply of affordable for-sale housing.
y During the 12 months ending May 2019, approximately 610
multifamily units were permitted, down 10 percent from the 680
units permitted during the previous 12-month period (preliminary
data). During the most recent 12-month period, approximately
4 percent of all multifamily units permitted in the metropolitan
area were condominiums.
y In 2010, when economic conditions were weak and population
growth was lower, only 35 multifamily units were permitted.
In response to the tightening apartment market and increased
net in-migration, permitting increased by an average of 75 units,
or 48 percent, a year, from 2011 through 2017, to 540 units.
1Q = first quarter. YoY = year-over-year.
Source: RealPage, Inc.
The vacancy rate in the Portland metropolitan area
remains below the recent peak that occurred during
the second quarter of 2017 despite a higher level of
apartment construction from 2016 through 2018.
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2011
1Q2012
1Q2013
1Q2014
1Q2015
1Q2016
1Q2017
1Q2018
1Q2019
YoY Change in Asking Rent
Vacancy Rate
Year-Over-Year Change
in Asking Rent
(%)
Vacancy Rate
(%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Note: Includes preliminary data from January 2019 through May 2019.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey
The level of multifamily permitting in the Portland
metropolitan area has increased nearly each year
since 2010, reaching a high in 2018.
Multifamily Units Permitted
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
y Recent multifamily construction has been dispersed throughout
the metropolitan area; one of the largest apartment properties
underway is the 288-unit Beacon at Gateway in the town of
Scarborough. When complete in August 2019, the property will
feature studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom units, with rents
starting at $1,450, $1,550, $1,900, and $2,325, respectively.
y In the city of Biddeford, the 181-unit Lincoln Mill is in planning.
The conversion of the former textile mill was first proposed
in 2014, and building permits are expected to be issued later
in 2019.
y The growing number of people at retirement age or older has
affected the rental market, and recently completed projects
include 353 independent and assisted living units in the cities
of Portland and South Portland.
